Western Cape Crime: What the Data Reveals
Over a decade of SAPS data across 152 precincts — patterns, shifts, and surprises
The COVID Recovery Story
How did crime bounce back after lockdowns?
COVID lockdowns caused the single biggest crime drop in recorded Western Cape history. But the recovery has been uneven. 43% of all precincts are still below their pre-COVID crime levels.
38%
Exceeded pre-COVID levels
57 precincts
19%
Recovered to pre-COVID levels
28 precincts
43%
Still below pre-COVID levels
66 precincts
Biggest overshoot
Doring Bay surged +159% above pre-COVID levels
Biggest improvement
Rondebosch dropped -39.3% and kept falling
Recovery by district
Drill down into each district
Source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, comparing 2019-2020 to 2022-2023 financial years. 151 precincts with complete data for both periods.
Crime Type Shifts
Crime isn't just changing in volume — it's changing in type
While total crime dropped, the composition of crime shifted dramatically. Commercial crime rose 122%, attempted sexual offences 37%, and drug-related crime 22%. Meanwhile, sexual offences detected as a result of police action fell 69% and burglary at non-residential premises dropped 61%. The data shows a notable shift away from property crime toward violent crime categories.
Rising
Falling
Property vs violent crime — the gap is closing
Property crime made up 45% of combined property and violent crime in 2018-2019 — down to 37% by 2022-2023. Violent crime is taking a larger share.
Inverse trends: burglary down, robbery up
In 21 precincts, burglary decreased over 15% while robbery increased over 15% — a pattern worth monitoring.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, all 152 Western Cape precincts, 2018-2019 vs 2022-2023 financial years. Rising/falling crime categories use City of Cape Town per-capita data (63 precincts).
Hidden Gems & Warning Signs
Who's getting better, who's getting worse?
The majority of precincts show a downward crime trajectory over 5 years. Only 10 are consistently worsening. Here are the standouts in both directions.
Top 10 consistent improvers
| Precinct | Decline streak | Avg. yearly drop |
|---|---|---|
| Paarl | 4 years | -6.6% |
| Camps Bay | 3 years | -11.4% |
| Mowbray | 3 years | -11.2% |
| Lansdowne | 3 years | -11.1% |
| Mcgregor | 3 years | -10.8% |
| Mossel Bay | 3 years | -10.8% |
| Ocean View | 3 years | -9.5% |
| Saldanha | 3 years | -9.3% |
| Rondebosch | 3 years | -8.2% |
| Ashton | 3 years | -5.2% |
10 precincts consistently worsening
| Precinct | Increase streak | Avg. yearly rise |
|---|---|---|
| Doring Bay | 6 years | +18.3% |
| Saron | 5 years | +15.1% |
| Hermanus | 5 years | +12% |
| Thembalethu | 5 years | +11.2% |
| Macassar | 5 years | +11% |
| Vanrhynsdorp | 5 years | +9.5% |
| Delft | 5 years | +8.8% |
| Atlantis | 5 years | +8.2% |
| Knysna | 5 years | +5.6% |
| Prince Alfred Hamlet | 5 years | +5.1% |
Biggest warning sign: Doring Bay
Doring Bay has averaged +18% annual crime growth over 6 consecutive years of increase — the most sustained worsening trend in the province.
4 distinct crime profiles
K-means cluster analysis of 152 Western Cape precincts reveals four distinct crime profile types.
High property crime areas
1 precinctsProperty crime categories such as theft from vehicles and burglary dominate, with relatively low violent crime.
Assault-dominant precincts
56 precinctsAssault is the most reported category, with drug-related crime also prominent. Mostly smaller towns.
Drug-dominated precincts
5 precinctsDrug crime accounts for 42%+ of all reported offences. Often suburban or coastal areas.
High violent crime precincts
1 precinctsAssault and robbery make up the largest share of reported crime in these precincts.
Source: Change vs prior year, 2019-2023 complete financial years. Crime profiles based on K-means clustering of per-capita crime rates across 152 Western Cape precincts.
The Trend Surprises
High-crime areas improving, low-crime areas worsening — the trends defy expectations
Some of the Western Cape's highest-crime precincts are showing the biggest improvements, while several traditionally quiet areas are seeing sharp increases. The data challenges assumptions about which areas are getting safer.
High-crime areas improving
Surprising movers
In Apr 2025–Mar 2026, Khayelitsha — a Very High crime precinct — saw crime drop 13.6% vs Apr 2024–Mar 2025. Meanwhile, historically quiet Lambertsbaai (Very Low crime) surged +38%.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, 2025-2026 vs previous year. "High-crime" = precincts classified as High or Very High crime volume (top 40%). "Low-crime" = precincts classified as Very Low or Low (bottom 40%).
What Correlates With What?
Statistical relationships between crime categories
Not all crime types move together. When one crime rises in a precinct, does another rise too? A strong link means they tend to increase together. A weak or negative link means they move independently or in opposite directions.
Key finding
The strongest correlation is between drug crime and violent crime (r=0.69). Precincts with high Drug crime rates tend to have high Violent crime rates. The weakest link? DUI and Murder (r=-0.08) — higher DUI precincts do not tend to have higher Murder rates.
Source: Pearson correlation analysis of per-capita crime rates across 152 Western Cape precincts, 2022-2023 financial year. Significance at p<0.01.
Explore individual precincts
Search for any suburb or precinct to see its full crime statistics
Data Sources & Methodology
- Crime data: SAPS quarterly crime statistics (2013-2025), publicly available at saps.gov.za
- Population data: City of Cape Town Census 2022 Police Precinct Profiles (63 CT precincts); Stats SA Census 2022 Municipal Factsheet (remaining precincts)
- Per-capita rates calculated only for CT precincts with official precinct-level population data
- All comparisons use complete 4-quarter financial years unless otherwise noted
- Correlation analysis uses Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients
- SAPS data reflects reported crime only. Under-reporting varies by area and crime type.
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for safety or property decisions. Full disclaimer
- Full methodology →