Western Cape Crime: What the Data Reveals
Over a decade of SAPS data across 152 precincts — patterns, shifts, and surprises
The COVID Recovery Story
How did crime bounce back after lockdowns?
Reported crime in Western Cape fell sharply in 2020/21, the first lockdown year, and has not recovered evenly. In 2025/26, 49% of the 145 precincts compared were more than 2% below their 2019/20 level.
44%
More than 2% above 2019/20
64 precincts
7%
Within 2% of 2019/20
10 precincts
49%
More than 2% below 2019/20
71 precincts
Largest rise since 2018/19
Doring Bay: +136.3% (91 → 215 reported crimes a year)
Largest fall since 2018/19
Rondebosch: -46.5% (1,866 → 998 reported crimes a year)
Recovery by district
Change in each district's total from 2019/20 to 2025/26, leaving out stations opened since 2018/19 or split when a neighbour opened.
Drill down into each district
Source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, comparing the 2019/20 and 2025/26 financial years, leaving out stations opened since 2018/19 or split when a neighbour opened. 145 precincts with complete data for both periods.
Crime Type Shifts
Crime isn't just changing in volume — it's changing in type
The mix of crime has changed as well as the volume. Across the 63 City of Cape Town precincts, from 2018/19 to 2025/26, commercial crime rose 121.7%, kidnapping rose 41.4%, and attempted sexual offences rose 37.4%. Meanwhile, sexual offences detected as a result of police action fell 68.8% and burglary at non-residential premises dropped 61.1%.
Rising
Falling
Property vs violent crime
Property crime made up 45% of combined property and violent crime in 2018/19, and 30% in 2025/26.
Inverse trends: burglary down, robbery up
In 8 precincts, residential burglary fell more than 15% while aggravated robbery rose more than 15%, 2018/19 to 2025/26. Only stations with at least 50 of each in 2018/19 and a comparable five-year figure are included.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, Western Cape precincts, 2018/19 vs 2025/26 financial years. The categories count every City of Cape Town station, including ones that opened since 2018/19, because areas only moved between stations inside the city. Rising/falling crime categories cover the 63 City of Cape Town precincts only, as raw counts.
Unexpected movers
Where did reported crime fall, and where did it rise?
The longest runs of falling and of rising reported crime, year after year. Precincts recording fewer than 50 crimes a year are left out, because a percentage on so few means little.
Longest falling runs
| Precinct | Decline streak | Avg. yearly drop |
|---|---|---|
| Camps Bay | 3 years | -11.4% |
| Mowbray | 3 years | -11.2% |
| Lansdowne | 3 years | -11.1% |
| Mossel Bay | 3 years | -10.8% |
| Ocean View | 3 years | -9.5% |
| Saldanha | 3 years | -9.3% |
| Paarl | 3 years | -8.4% |
Longest rising runs
| Precinct | Increase streak | Avg. yearly rise |
|---|---|---|
| Doring Bay | 5 years | +21.7% |
| Saron | 5 years | +15.1% |
| Thembalethu | 5 years | +11.2% |
| Delft | 5 years | +8.8% |
| Rawsonville | 4 years | +10.7% |
| Hopefield | 3 years | +7.4% |
Longest sustained rise: Doring Bay
Doring Bay has averaged +21.7% annual crime growth over 5 consecutive years of increase — the most sustained worsening trend in the province.
City of Cape Town precincts grouped by their largest shares of crime
The 63 City of Cape Town precincts, each placed by the first of these rules it meets, using its share of reported crime in 2025/26.
Drug-related crime over 42%
5 precinctsDrug-related crime is more than 42% of all reported crime.
Property crime over 35%
1 precinctResidential burglary, theft out of or from vehicles and vehicle theft together are more than 35% of reported crime (drug-related crime 42% or less).
Assault and robbery over 45%
1 precinctAssault and robbery together are more than 45% of reported crime, with aggravated robbery above 8% (neither rule above applies).
All other precincts
56 precinctsNone of the three rules above applies.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, 2025/26 financial year. Shares are of each precinct's own total, not adjusted for population.
The Trend Surprises
High-volume areas falling, low-volume areas rising
Below: Western Cape precincts in the High or Very High volume tiers whose reported crime fell more than 5%, and precincts in the Low or Very Low tiers whose reported crime rose more than 15%. Both compare Apr–Jun 2026 with Apr–Jun 2025, leave out precincts with fewer than 50 crimes a year earlier and those next to a newly opened station, and show at most six.
High-crime areas improving
Surprising movers
In Apr–Jun 2026, Beaufort West — a High crime precinct — saw crime drop 30% vs Apr–Jun 2025. Meanwhile, historically quiet Darling (Low crime) rose +78.3%.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, Apr–Jun 2026 vs Apr–Jun 2025. "High-crime" = precincts classified as High or Very High crime volume (top 40%). "Low-crime" = precincts classified as Very Low or Low (bottom 40%).
What Correlates With What?
Statistical relationships between crime categories
Not all crime types move together. When one crime rises in a precinct, does another rise too? A strong link means they tend to increase together. A weak or negative link means they move independently or in opposite directions.
Key finding
The strongest correlation is between drug crime and assault, robbery and murder (r=0.69). Precincts with high drug crime rates tend to have high assault, robbery and murder rates. The weakest link? DUI and Murder (r=-0.08) — DUI and Murder rates show no reliable link across these precincts.
Source: Pearson correlation analysis of per-capita crime rates across the 63 City of Cape Town precincts with precinct-level population, 2025/26 financial year. Pairs marked not significant do not pass a p < 0.01 test across the 63 precincts.
Explore individual precincts
Search for any suburb or precinct to see its full crime statistics
Data Sources & Methodology
- Crime data: SAPS crime statistics (2013/14 to Apr–Jun 2026), publicly available at saps.gov.za
- Population data: City of Cape Town Census 2022 Police Precinct Profiles (63 CT precincts); Stats SA Census 2022 Municipal Factsheet (remaining precincts)
- Per-capita rates calculated only for CT precincts with official precinct-level population data
- All comparisons use complete 4-quarter financial years unless otherwise noted
- Correlation analysis uses Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients
- SAPS data reflects reported crime only. Under-reporting varies by area and crime type. How much crime goes unreported? →
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for safety or property decisions. Full disclaimer
- Full methodology →