Mpumalanga Crime: What the Data Reveals
Over a decade of SAPS data across 90 precincts — patterns, shifts, and surprises
The COVID Recovery Story
How did crime bounce back after lockdowns?
COVID lockdowns caused the single biggest crime drop in recorded Mpumalanga history. But the recovery has been uneven. 86% of all precincts are still below their pre-COVID crime levels.
6%
Exceeded pre-COVID levels
5 precincts
8%
Recovered to pre-COVID levels
7 precincts
86%
Still below pre-COVID levels
78 precincts
Biggest overshoot
Trichardt surged +21.1% above pre-COVID levels
Biggest improvement
Val dropped -55.6% and kept falling
Recovery by district
Drill down into each district
Source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, comparing 2019-2020 to 2022-2023 financial years. 90 precincts with complete data for both periods.
Crime Type Shifts
Crime isn't just changing in volume — it's changing in type
While total crime dropped, the composition of crime shifted dramatically. The data shows a notable shift away from property crime toward violent crime categories.
Rising
Falling
Property vs violent crime — the gap is closing
Property crime made up 50% of combined property and violent crime in 2018-2019 — down to 42% by 2022-2023. Violent crime is taking a larger share.
Inverse trends: burglary down, robbery up
In 28 precincts, burglary decreased over 15% while robbery increased over 15% — a pattern worth monitoring.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, all 90 Mpumalanga precincts, 2018-2019 vs 2022-2023 financial years.
Hidden Gems & Warning Signs
Who's getting better, who's getting worse?
The majority of precincts show a downward crime trajectory over 5 years. Only 2 are consistently worsening. Here are the standouts in both directions.
Top 10 consistent improvers
| Precinct | Decline streak | Avg. yearly drop |
|---|---|---|
| Balfour TVL | 7 years | -9.8% |
| Badplaas | 4 years | -12.3% |
| Maartenshoop | 4 years | -9.4% |
| Matsulu | 4 years | -5.1% |
| Val | 3 years | -16.7% |
| Chrissiesmeer | 3 years | -14.3% |
| Kinross | 3 years | -11.4% |
| Leslie | 3 years | -10% |
| Calcutta | 3 years | -9.8% |
| Evander | 3 years | -8.5% |
2 precincts consistently worsening
| Precinct | Increase streak | Avg. yearly rise |
|---|---|---|
| Mmametlake | 5 years | +8.5% |
| Kanyamazane | 3 years | +6.9% |
Biggest warning sign: Mmametlake
Mmametlake has averaged +9% annual crime growth over 5 consecutive years of increase — the most sustained worsening trend in the province.
The Trend Surprises
High-crime areas improving, low-crime areas worsening — the trends defy expectations
Some of the Mpumalanga's highest-crime precincts are showing the biggest improvements, while several traditionally quiet areas are seeing sharp increases. The data challenges assumptions about which areas are getting safer.
High-crime areas improving
Low-crime areas worsening
Surprising movers
In Apr 2025–Mar 2026, Schoemansdal — a High crime precinct — saw crime drop 17.4% vs Apr 2024–Mar 2025. Meanwhile, historically quiet Mahamba (Very Low crime) surged +29%.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, 2025-2026 vs previous year. "High-crime" = precincts classified as High or Very High crime volume (top 40%). "Low-crime" = precincts classified as Very Low or Low (bottom 40%).
Explore individual precincts
Search for any suburb or precinct to see its full crime statistics
Data Sources & Methodology
- Crime data: SAPS quarterly crime statistics (2013-2025), publicly available at saps.gov.za
- Population data: Stats SA Census 2022 Municipal Factsheet
- All comparisons use complete 4-quarter financial years unless otherwise noted
- Correlation analysis uses Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients
- SAPS data reflects reported crime only. Under-reporting varies by area and crime type.
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for safety or property decisions. Full disclaimer
- Full methodology →