KwaZulu-Natal Crime: What the Data Reveals
Over a decade of SAPS data across 184 precincts — patterns, shifts, and surprises
The COVID Recovery Story
How did crime bounce back after lockdowns?
COVID lockdowns caused the single biggest crime drop in recorded KwaZulu-Natal history. But the recovery has been uneven. 43% of all precincts are still below their pre-COVID crime levels.
37%
Exceeded pre-COVID levels
69 precincts
20%
Recovered to pre-COVID levels
37 precincts
43%
Still below pre-COVID levels
80 precincts
Biggest overshoot
Gamalakhe surged +66.7% above pre-COVID levels
Biggest improvement
Int Airp King Shaka dropped -57.1% and kept falling
Recovery by district
Drill down into each district
Source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, comparing 2019-2020 to 2022-2023 financial years. 186 precincts with complete data for both periods.
Crime Type Shifts
Crime isn't just changing in volume — it's changing in type
While total crime dropped, the composition of crime shifted dramatically. The data shows a notable shift away from property crime toward violent crime categories.
Rising
Falling
Property vs violent crime — the gap is closing
Property crime made up 45% of combined property and violent crime in 2018-2019 — down to 35% by 2022-2023. Violent crime is taking a larger share.
Inverse trends: burglary down, robbery up
In 52 precincts, burglary decreased over 15% while robbery increased over 15% — a pattern worth monitoring.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, all 184 KwaZulu-Natal precincts, 2018-2019 vs 2022-2023 financial years.
Hidden Gems & Warning Signs
Who's getting better, who's getting worse?
The majority of precincts show a downward crime trajectory over 5 years. Only 10 are consistently worsening. Here are the standouts in both directions.
Top 10 consistent improvers
| Precinct | Decline streak | Avg. yearly drop |
|---|---|---|
| Donnybrook | 5 years | -8.7% |
| Amangwe | 4 years | -10% |
| Msinga | 4 years | -6.6% |
| Point | 4 years | -5.5% |
| Ntabamhlophe | 4 years | -4.9% |
| Pinetown | 4 years | -3.4% |
| Ematimatolo | 3 years | -16.5% |
| Umbilo | 3 years | -16.4% |
| Wasbank | 3 years | -14.6% |
| Berea | 3 years | -14.5% |
10 precincts consistently worsening
| Precinct | Increase streak | Avg. yearly rise |
|---|---|---|
| Bayview | 5 years | +15.2% |
| Nongoma | 5 years | +12.9% |
| Umhlali | 5 years | +12% |
| Durban North | 5 years | +11.6% |
| Osizweni | 5 years | +10.8% |
| Lamontville | 5 years | +10.1% |
| Mpophomeni | 5 years | +7.6% |
| Thornville | 5 years | +7.4% |
| Richards Bay | 5 years | +6.9% |
| Kwadabeka | 5 years | +6.4% |
Biggest warning sign: Bayview
Bayview has averaged +15% annual crime growth over 5 consecutive years of increase — the most sustained worsening trend in the province.
The Trend Surprises
High-crime areas improving, low-crime areas worsening — the trends defy expectations
Some of the KwaZulu-Natal's highest-crime precincts are showing the biggest improvements, while several traditionally quiet areas are seeing sharp increases. The data challenges assumptions about which areas are getting safer.
High-crime areas improving
Surprising movers
In Apr 2025–Mar 2026, Umbilo — a Very High crime precinct — saw crime drop 23.2% vs Apr 2024–Mar 2025. Meanwhile, historically quiet Colenso (Low crime) surged +34%.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, 2025-2026 vs previous year. "High-crime" = precincts classified as High or Very High crime volume (top 40%). "Low-crime" = precincts classified as Very Low or Low (bottom 40%).
Explore individual precincts
Search for any suburb or precinct to see its full crime statistics
Data Sources & Methodology
- Crime data: SAPS quarterly crime statistics (2013-2025), publicly available at saps.gov.za
- Population data: Stats SA Census 2022 Municipal Factsheet
- All comparisons use complete 4-quarter financial years unless otherwise noted
- Correlation analysis uses Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients
- SAPS data reflects reported crime only. Under-reporting varies by area and crime type.
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for safety or property decisions. Full disclaimer
- Full methodology →