KwaZulu-Natal Crime: What the Data Reveals
Over a decade of SAPS data across 184 precincts — patterns, shifts, and surprises
The COVID Recovery Story
How did crime bounce back after lockdowns?
COVID lockdowns caused the single biggest crime drop in recorded KwaZulu-Natal history. But the recovery has been uneven. 56% of all precincts are still below their pre-COVID crime levels.
26%
Exceeded pre-COVID levels
49 precincts
18%
Recovered to pre-COVID levels
33 precincts
56%
Still below pre-COVID levels
104 precincts
Biggest overshoot
Dududu surged +73.1% above pre-COVID levels
Biggest improvement
Harburg dropped -45.6% and kept falling
Recovery by district
Drill down into each district
Source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, comparing 2019-2020 to 2022-2023 financial years. 186 precincts with complete data for both periods.
Crime Type Shifts
Crime isn't just changing in volume — it's changing in type
While total crime dropped, the composition of crime shifted dramatically. The data shows a notable shift away from property crime toward violent crime categories.
Rising
Falling
Property vs violent crime — the gap is closing
Property crime made up 45% of combined property and violent crime in 2018-2019 — down to 35% by 2022-2023. Violent crime is taking a larger share.
Inverse trends: burglary down, robbery up
In 76 precincts, burglary decreased over 15% while robbery increased over 15% — a pattern worth monitoring.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, all 184 KwaZulu-Natal precincts, 2018-2019 vs 2022-2023 financial years.
Hidden Gems & Warning Signs
Who's getting better, who's getting worse?
The majority of precincts show a downward crime trajectory over 5 years. Only 2 are consistently worsening. Here are the standouts in both directions.
Top 10 consistent improvers
| Precinct | Decline streak | Avg. yearly drop |
|---|---|---|
| Himeville | 6 years | -12.8% |
| Southport | 6 years | -8.4% |
| Mbongolwane | 5 years | -11.3% |
| Mpungamhlophe | 3 years | -14.3% |
| Groenvlei | 3 years | -13.7% |
| Scottburgh | 3 years | -12.3% |
| Umsunduzi | 3 years | -10.8% |
| Ekombe | 3 years | -9.4% |
| Winterton | 3 years | -9.3% |
| Gowan Lea | 3 years | -7.6% |
2 precincts consistently worsening
| Precinct | Increase streak | Avg. yearly rise |
|---|---|---|
| Dududu | 3 years | +20.7% |
| Camperdown | 3 years | +3.9% |
Biggest warning sign: Dududu
Dududu has averaged +21% annual crime growth over 3 consecutive years of increase — the most sustained worsening trend in the province.
The Trend Surprises
High-crime areas improving, low-crime areas worsening — the trends defy expectations
Some of the KwaZulu-Natal's highest-crime precincts are showing the biggest improvements, while several traditionally quiet areas are seeing sharp increases. The data challenges assumptions about which areas are getting safer.
High-crime areas improving
Surprising movers
In Apr–Dec 2025, Umbilo — a Very High crime precinct — saw crime drop 23.8% vs Apr–Dec 2024. Meanwhile, historically quiet Van Reenen (Very Low crime) surged +91%.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, 2025-2026 vs previous year. "High-crime" = precincts classified as High or Very High crime volume (top 40%). "Low-crime" = precincts classified as Very Low or Low (bottom 40%).
Explore individual precincts
Search for any suburb or precinct to see its full crime statistics
Data Sources & Methodology
- Crime data: SAPS quarterly crime statistics (2013-2025), publicly available at saps.gov.za
- Population data: Stats SA Census 2022 Municipal Factsheet
- All comparisons use complete 4-quarter financial years unless otherwise noted
- Correlation analysis uses Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients
- SAPS data reflects reported crime only. Under-reporting varies by area and crime type.
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for safety or property decisions. Full disclaimer
- Full methodology →