Eastern Cape Crime: What the Data Reveals
Over a decade of SAPS data across 200 precincts — patterns, shifts, and surprises
The COVID Recovery Story
How did crime bounce back after lockdowns?
Reported crime in Eastern Cape fell sharply in 2020/21, the first lockdown year, and has not recovered evenly. In 2025/26, 52% of the 191 precincts compared were more than 2% below their 2019/20 level.
42%
More than 2% above 2019/20
80 precincts
6%
Within 2% of 2019/20
12 precincts
52%
More than 2% below 2019/20
99 precincts
Largest rise since 2018/19
Bhisho: +71.8% (606 → 1,041 reported crimes a year)
Largest fall since 2018/19
Seafield: -56.3% (80 → 35 reported crimes a year)
Recovery by district
Change in each district's total from 2019/20 to 2025/26, leaving out stations opened since 2018/19 or split when a neighbour opened.
Drill down into each district
Source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, comparing the 2019/20 and 2025/26 financial years, leaving out stations opened since 2018/19 or split when a neighbour opened. 191 precincts with complete data for both periods.
Crime Type Shifts
Crime isn't just changing in volume — it's changing in type
The mix of crime has changed as well as the volume.
Rising
Falling
Property vs violent crime
Property crime made up 43% of combined property and violent crime in 2018/19, and 35% in 2025/26.
Inverse trends: burglary down, robbery up
In 4 precincts, residential burglary fell more than 15% while aggravated robbery rose more than 15%, 2018/19 to 2025/26. Only stations with at least 50 of each in 2018/19 and a comparable five-year figure are included.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, Eastern Cape precincts, 2018/19 vs 2025/26 financial years; stations opened since 2018/19 or split when a neighbour opened are left out.
Unexpected movers
Where did reported crime fall, and where did it rise?
The longest runs of falling and of rising reported crime, year after year. Precincts recording fewer than 50 crimes a year are left out, because a percentage on so few means little.
Longest falling runs
| Precinct | Decline streak | Avg. yearly drop |
|---|---|---|
| Thornhill | 3 years | -12.3% |
| Gelvandale | 3 years | -11.6% |
| Willowmore | 3 years | -11.2% |
| Motherwell | 3 years | -9.9% |
| Mount Road | 3 years | -6.7% |
| Kugompo | 3 years | -6.2% |
| Xamdeboo | 3 years | -5.8% |
| Makhanda | 3 years | -4.8% |
| Palmietfontein | 3 years | -3.7% |
Longest rising runs
| Precinct | Increase streak | Avg. yearly rise |
|---|---|---|
| Maletswai | 5 years | +17.8% |
| Bhisho | 5 years | +13.5% |
| Kleinbulhoek | 4 years | +14.1% |
| Kei Road | 4 years | +10.4% |
| Qumbu | 4 years | +7.8% |
| Thina Falls | 3 years | +31.2% |
| Adelaide | 3 years | +24.9% |
| Ngangelizwe | 3 years | +5.5% |
Longest sustained rise: Maletswai
Maletswai has averaged +17.8% annual crime growth over 5 consecutive years of increase — the most sustained worsening trend in the province.
The Trend Surprises
High-volume areas falling, low-volume areas rising
Below: Eastern Cape precincts in the High or Very High volume tiers whose reported crime fell more than 5%, and precincts in the Low or Very Low tiers whose reported crime rose more than 15%. Both compare Apr–Jun 2026 with Apr–Jun 2025, leave out precincts with fewer than 50 crimes a year earlier and those next to a newly opened station, and show at most six.
High-crime areas improving
Low-crime areas worsening
Surprising movers
In Apr–Jun 2026, Tsolo — a High crime precinct — saw crime drop 29.9% vs Apr–Jun 2025. Meanwhile, historically quiet Thornhill (Low crime) rose +37.7%.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, Apr–Jun 2026 vs Apr–Jun 2025. "High-crime" = precincts classified as High or Very High crime volume (top 40%). "Low-crime" = precincts classified as Very Low or Low (bottom 40%).
Explore individual precincts
Search for any suburb or precinct to see its full crime statistics
Data Sources & Methodology
- Crime data: SAPS crime statistics (2013/14 to Apr–Jun 2026), publicly available at saps.gov.za
- Population data: Stats SA Census 2022 Municipal Factsheet
- All comparisons use complete 4-quarter financial years unless otherwise noted
- Correlation analysis uses Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients
- SAPS data reflects reported crime only. Under-reporting varies by area and crime type. How much crime goes unreported? →
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for safety or property decisions. Full disclaimer
- Full methodology →